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Tokenized Deposits Could Cut US Bank Lending by $580 Billion
Report says tokenized deposits could cut U.S. banks' lending capacity by $580 billion
Dallas Fed economists say tokenized deposits could curb US banks’ capacity for long-term rate risk
tokenized dep
2026-08-26 11:53:10

Dallas Fed economists say tokenized deposits could weaken US banks’ capacity to absorb rate risk

Economists Rosie Levy and Srini Ramaswamy at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimate that tokenized deposits could materially reduce how much long-term interest rate risk US banks can bear under two stress assumptions. In their estimate, a 10% increase in depositor sensitivity to interest rates could reduce that capacity by about $700 billion. If tokenization were to trigger a 10% early outflow of deposits, banks would lose roughly $580 billion of risk absorption capacity. The analysis describes tokenized deposits as commercial bank money placed on blockchain rails, enabling programmable payments and real-time settlement. At the same time, the economists say smart contracts and AI agents could automate deposit shifts, cutting into deposit stickiness. They add that banks could respond by raising deposit rates, holding more reserves and Treasuries, or relying more on term debt, though those adjustments may increase borrowing costs for households and businesses. The piece also points to research on Brazil’s Pix instant payment network, which found that more frequent use was associated with higher bank holdings of liquid assets such as government bonds and less credit intermediation. Tokenized deposits remain at an early stage, with The Clearing House, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo among those developing interoperable networks for interbank clearing, automated workflows, and 24/7 settlement.

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Dallas Fed economists say tokenized deposits could weaken US banks’ capacity to absorb rate risk